How Do the 2012-2016 Orioles Rank in Franchise History?

As we approach the beginning of Spring Training, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a familiar place.

Once again, the national media — and most statistical projections — are calling for the Orioles to finish well below .500…and near the bottom of the American League East.

Yet for the last five years, Buck Showalter’s Birds have managed to win more games than any other team in the American League.

The debate over the value of those projection systems — and media prognostications — is best saved for another day.

But here’s what I was wondering:

Where do these Orioles of the last five years rank in terms of all-time great Orioles teams?

We all know that there wasn’t a whole lot of winning done at Camden Yards from 1998 through 2011.

So the last five years — and the O’s .548 winning percentage over that span — certainly feels like a great run.

But does that five-year stretch only feel so good because it followed a miserable stretch of nearly a decade-and-a-half of losing baseball?

I decided to do some quick math to see just where the 2012-2016 Orioles rank in terms of great clubs.

What I found was interesting.

There have been a total of 59 “stretches” of 5 years since the Orioles moved to Baltimore in 1954.  (I’m counting the ’54-’58 Orioles as the first official five-year “stretch” for the purposes of this exercise, so we aren’t including any of the St. Louis Browns teams that preceded the Birds.)

You can scroll down to view the entire ranked list of five-year “stretches”…but here are some highlights:

• In terms of “great teams,” the 2012-2016 Orioles…aren’t that great.  In fact, they’re not even in the Top 20.  They come in at #23.

• The Orioles have had four “stretches” of teams that finished with winning percentages of greater than .600.  And not surprisingly, three of those four encompassed the team’s three consecutive American League championships from 1969-1971.

• 11 out of the club’s 14 worst five-year “stretches” have come since 2000. Yikes. Let’s not discuss 1998-2011 anymore, ok?

• Earl Weaver’s fingerprints are all over the top 10 “stretches” on this list.  In fact, 6 of the top 10 are exclusively Weaver teams.  One includes a half-season of Hank Bauer…another one season of Joe Altobelli…and two more with 1.5 or 2.5 Bauer seasons.

• While the current Orioles (2012-2016) don’t appear until #23 on this list, they are certainly the best group of recent Oriole squads. The 2011-2015 Birds don’t appear until #29 on the list and the 1996-2000 Birds appear at #33.

• One of the things that surprised me most about this list was just how high the 1977-1981 Orioles ranked. The O’s only made one playoff appearance (an A.L. championship) during that stretch, yet played .599 baseball…the fifth-best five-year “stretch” in club history.

So what does this mean?

Is it possible we’re a little too happy with the O’s stretch of .548 baseball over the last five years?

On the one hand…yes — it’s clear that based on club history we should demand a little more, both in terms of winning percentage and league championships.

But on the other hand…they have won more games than any other American League team during that time period. So they must be doing something right.

I think what it speaks to, more than anything, is the parity that we’ve seen in Major League Baseball over the last decade. Without any truly dominant teams, a relatively modest .548 winning percentage stands out as a mark of consistency.

In addition, the expansion of the playoff format has allowed the O’s to claim “postseason” status in three of the five years…while at the same time winning just one division title.

As to what the 2017 season will bring…your guess is as good as mine. (And, clearly, our guesses are probably better than the experts’ best guesses.)

So here’s hoping that the 2017 season is good enough to warrant an analysis of the team’s best six-year stretches a year from now.

Here is the full list of five-year stretches, ranked from best to worst.

Rank	Start	End	Win %
1	1969	1973	0.6203
2	1968	1972	0.6128
3	1979	1983	0.6032
4	1967	1971	0.6025
5	1977	1981	0.5989
6	1970	1974	0.5977
7	1966	1970	0.5960
8	1978	1982	0.5933
9	1976	1980	0.5925
10	1975	1979	0.5823
11	1965	1969	0.5787
12	1980	1984	0.5782
13	1971	1975	0.5774
14	1973	1977	0.5744
15	1974	1978	0.5665
16	1964	1968	0.5631
17	1972	1976	0.5582
18	1962	1966	0.5575
19	1963	1967	0.5569
20	1981	1985	0.5564
21	1961	1965	0.5530
22	1960	1964	0.5522
23	2012	2016	0.5481
24	1993	1997	0.5451
25	1994	1998	0.5370
26	1982	1986	0.5346
27	1992	1996	0.5330
28	1959	1963	0.5289
29	2011	2015	0.5235
30	1957	1961	0.5231
31	1995	1999	0.5221
32	1958	1962	0.5190
33	1996	2000	0.5142
34	1991	1995	0.5054
35	2010	2014	0.5049
36	1983	1987	0.5019
37	1990	1994	0.5007
38	1989	1993	0.4994
39	1956	1960	0.4955
40	1997	2001	0.4840
41	2009	2013	0.4654
42	1988	1992	0.4616
43	1955	1959	0.4528
44	1985	1989	0.4505
45	1984	1988	0.4480
46	2003	2007	0.4464
47	1998	2002	0.4457
48	2008	2012	0.4450
49	2002	2006	0.4439
50	2004	2008	0.4438
51	1986	1990	0.4418
52	2001	2005	0.4353
53	2000	2004	0.4353
54	1999	2003	0.4353
55	1987	1991	0.4344
56	1954	1958	0.4275
57	2005	2009	0.4265
58	2006	2010	0.4166
59	2007	2011	0.4153